- Feb 24, 2014
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I hope that most people didn't have an issue with reading the files, however what I will take a guess at is that a lot of people won't understand the advanced nature of the probabilities involved.
The drop files use a mixture of cumulative probability and conditional probability.
I'll use OmaKing like Jamie did above. These are your cumulative probability drops:
In these there is no linking of the events, each probability is independant of any other, much like flipping a coin or rolling a dice (although with many more outcomes).
When you go to the super drops, you are introducing a condition, in basic terms, in order for event B to happen you must have a positive outcome of event A. This is calculated as P(A|B) or sometimes known as PB(A).
So in the weapons section in a super drop we have:
I'll leave out the first ones with a 1/2 as you are entering into a third condition and then the math would start to get long and boring!
So probability of event A - 1/30 or 0.03r
Probability of event B - 1/100 or 0.01
The probability of the union of the events is calculated as A + B - 0.0433
The bit we are really interested in is the probability of the intersection of the events, this is calculated as A * B - 0.0003r.
So the real chance of getting a JudgementMace from OmaKing is 1/30,000 (rounded).
The drop files use a mixture of cumulative probability and conditional probability.
I'll use OmaKing like Jamie did above. These are your cumulative probability drops:
Code:
1/1000 MuscleRing
1/500 RedEyeSkull
1/2000 OmaKingRobe(M)
1/2000 OmaKingRobe(F)
1/10 DragonScale
1/10 DragonScale
1/10 DragonScale
1/10 DragonScale
1/10 DragonScale
1/10000 Flamefield
1/10000 Curse
1/10000 Rage
1/200 SummonShinsu
1/200 IceStorm
1/200 FlamingSword
In these there is no linking of the events, each probability is independant of any other, much like flipping a coin or rolling a dice (although with many more outcomes).
When you go to the super drops, you are introducing a condition, in basic terms, in order for event B to happen you must have a positive outcome of event A. This is calculated as P(A|B) or sometimes known as PB(A).
So in the weapons section in a super drop we have:
Code:
;Chance of weapons drop
#CHILD 1/100 RANDOM
(
1/2 FreezingBlades
1/2 WarSpiritBlade
1/2 RecurveBow
1/2 MagicScythe
1/2 StoneBambooFan
1/1 BladesofDarkness
1/1 SteadFastBow
1/1 JudgementMace
1/1 SoulSpringWand
1/1 WarMageStaff
)
I'll leave out the first ones with a 1/2 as you are entering into a third condition and then the math would start to get long and boring!
So probability of event A - 1/30 or 0.03r
Probability of event B - 1/100 or 0.01
The probability of the union of the events is calculated as A + B - 0.0433
The bit we are really interested in is the probability of the intersection of the events, this is calculated as A * B - 0.0003r.
So the real chance of getting a JudgementMace from OmaKing is 1/30,000 (rounded).
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