Portential bug: Crafting

[Chaiyns]

Potential bug: Crafting

So I went about making Protection Gems today, built a bunch, three made it out.

Now there's in all likelihood I had the abysmal chance of having that many succeed or there's something wrong.

Of the three that made it out all of them had the bonus ores to get it to 70% success rate, one at 70% broke, the other five or six I did that were put in between 64-69% range success rate total all broke.

Like I said this might just be the rng hating my guts like a lot, but at that rate probability itself calls bullshit, and in likelihood something's going wonky when you have under the 70% threshold.

If you guys could take a look at it, run the crafter at sub 70% rates for a few minutes and see that'd be great

 

[Mystickiller]

I have about 50% fail at the moment lol. Pretty silly.

 

[Chaiyns]

Yeah that's pretty rough, for me I just noticed the gap between hitting the 70% cap being actual 70% but anything under it for me is 0%, which statistically is borked.

 

[d1craig]

There should be something that stores attempts, fails and succeeds. In guessing there isn't though.

if this was in place you could easy tell if the %s where right.

 

[lancelot1]

Yeah that's pretty rough, for me I just noticed the gap between hitting the 70% cap being actual 70% but anything under it for me is 0%, which statistically is borked.

You can put another Adam in to bring it to 70%.

I must've made about 100 gems so far, I would say the 70% success rate is pretty accurate. I've had 8/12 SoulGems fail to make in the span of 3-4 days and today I've had 5 SoulGems in a row get created. Last night I got 5/7. I've also failed all of my last 5 AC/AMC Gems and succeeded in crafting 6/7 of the special gems I tried (MR, Agil, Acc).

In short: don't go about crafting gems expecting them to succeed often and don't try crafting gems if you can't afford to lose the mats (same goes for gemming kit).

I could've stored the 10 gems I got last night and today and used them all at once and lost my entire (already gemmed) kit, but I wouldn't have been all that fussed tbh. That's why I did it

 

[Chaiyns]

The thread is less about fuss and gold, and more about noting an inconsistency and hoping someone will peek at it and notice the same things or not with a better sample size :P

 

[ziiid]

Between attempting to craft a gem, gems failing and no effects I have not had an item upgrade in 13 tries in a row. 7 didn't craft, 3 broke and 3 no effects. All the crafts were at 70%. Keep in mind this is 13 tries in a row, not a single upgrade. I don't have the energy at the moment to run the statistical chance of this happening.

 

[lancelot1]

Between attempting to craft a gem, gems failing and no effects I have not had an item upgrade in 13 tries in a row. 7 didn't craft, 3 broke and 3 no effects. All the crafts were at 70%. Keep in mind this is 13 tries in a row, not a single upgrade. I don't have the energy at the moment to run the statistical chance of this happening.

When you do find the energy also let me know what the odds are of getting 15 successful gemcrafts in a row (which I did get in the past 48 hours, a streak broken earlier today by a God-forsaken DC gem).

 

[HarryH]

0.7^15 = 1/211 If i'm not mistaken

 

[jez]

i thought % was based over 100. so make 100 and 70 should work. in theory i spose the first 30 could fail.

i dont think they should fail on craft at all, they break n fail enuff on use!